League One - Midweek

Doncaster picked up a hard-earned point at Ipswich over the weekend, a result which could have potentially been better according to post-game interviews. Nevertheless, it saw them extend their unbeaten record to five matches, and they head back to the Keepmoat on Tuesday – a fortress after four consecutive wins.

Now, Doncaster have been posting decent enough numbers all season +2.5 on the expected goals, unbeaten in the league, boasting a 57% shot ratio. It all looks very good.

They take on Blackpool this week, who are somehow only behind Doncaster on goal difference. Despite playing two more games, they should probably be further down the pecking order, and most expected goals models have them somewhere nearer 14th-15th despite those additional games. Ours ranks them about 20th best in the division currently (out of 23). They have posted just a 43% shot ratio (85-113) thus far. MK Don’s are rated pretty badly and managed to win 3-0 at Blackpool last weekend, which really says it all!

We’d make Doncaster a fraction of odds-on in this one, so early quotes of 13/10 are a good way north of where we think they should be. It’s a strong bet.

Southend have been struggling badly since the start of the season, and find themselves on a single point and a -13 goal difference after seven matches. There probably won’t be many tipsters putting them up for away wins this season, but at 9/2 there could be a little value on Tuesday as they try to get something from the game at Shrewsbury.

The Shrews have won nine points from their opening seven games, but that has probably flattered them in all honesty, while Southend have almost certainly not collected as many points as they should have. Things could be much closer than they look, and firms going as short as 4/6 about Shrewsbury are probably being overly influenced by results rather than process - especially now Southend have a new manager installed to try to inject some fresh impetuous into proceedings.

On the pure shot numbers, Southend have managed 75 shots to Shrewsbury’s 77 this season, and 92 against compared to 99 for the Shrews. All very close really, so get with the away side at the long odds here.

Recommended Bets

3pts Doncaster to beat Blackpool at 13/10 (General)

1pt Doncaster (-1) to beat Blackpool at 15/4 (SpreadEx)

1pt Southend to beat Shrewsbury at 9/2 (Bet365)

#Football