League Two - Midweek

Crawley have been chalked up as the outsiders when they entertain Plymouth, which is a real mystery given how well the hosts have started the season.

Crawley have collected 14 points from their opening eight matches – scoring 12 and conceding nine. The underlaying metrics suggest they could be doing even better, having won the shot count 146-99 over their opening fixtures – the most shots of any side in the division. Similarly, on the expected goals tables they are projected over 14 goals at this point and should probably be better off than their eighth place in the table.

Visitors Plymouth aren’t far behind, with 11 points now – but eight of those have come at home – while they have struggled on the road, and are now without a win in five matches. Their last three away matches have seen them lose at Port Vale (1-0), Northampton (3-1) and Newport (1-0) and their 51% shot ratio puts them smack average in the division.

Now these two have produced plenty of chances at both ends this season. We’ve seen an average of 30.6 shots per game in Crawley matches, and 29.6 per game in Plymouth games. That’s a good 20% above the league average of 25 shots per game. Six of Plymouth’s 11 matches have gone Over 2.5 Goals, while five of Crawley’s 11 have. Let’s try a small Over 2.5 Goals bet in this one, as well as getting with Crawley.

Another side who are big outsiders despite enjoying home advantage on Tuesday are Leyton Orient. We backed them unsuccessfully a couple of weeks back against Swindon, but the O’s don’t look a bad side and are probably being under-rated with offers of 12/5 to beat Crewe in this one.

Orient have endured a tough start to the season, playing Swindon, Exeter, Mansfield and Plymouth already this season, but have managed two wins and three draws from their opening exchanges, so are handy enough.

Crewe have been heavily backed – into 11/10 which looks well short enough for the Railwaymen. David Artell’s men have done well – absolutely, but they have also benefitted from avoiding draws thus far – five wins and five defeats, with the odd draw thrown in in all comps. It’s all about the price here, because in fairness, Crewe are the better side here, but 12/5 about Leyton Orient is just too long.

Recommended Bets

2pts Crawley to beat Plymouth at 19/10 (Bet365)

1pt Over 2.5 Goals at Crawley v Plymouth at 3/4 (General)

1pt Leyton Orient to beat Crewe at 12/5 (General)

#Football