Benfica v RB Leipzig

There were a few Champions League bets which spiked our interest this week, but perhaps the most interesting is Benfica against RB Leipzig – the new force in German football.

Benfica have a fine pedigree though, and they have been Europa League finalists as recently as 2013 and 2014 where they lost to Chelsea (2-1) and then Sevilla on penalties. They were also semi-finalists in 2011. In Portugal it is certainly true that Porto, Benfica and Sporting Lisbon dominate an otherwise slightly light-weight domestic league, but the trio tend to hold an Elo rating of around 1700-1800 over the long term and they are definitely competitive in Europe.

They take on RB Leipzig who have risen from obscurity to hosting regular European nights in a few short years. It’s not been without controversy, but we are where we are and they should be judged on quality now rather than history when it comes to betting.

Whilst it’s true that the Bundesliga is much stronger than the Portuguese Primeira Liga, it is also worth nothing that the gap between the top and bottom is much more condensed in Germany, so the real cream from Portugal generally matches the better sides from Germany – it least now the golden era of Bayern Munich seems to have rescinded. In fact, taking the ClubElo scores, there is absolutely nothing between Leipzig and Benfica.

Given the great start that the hosts have made this season – five wins from six matches, five clean sheets and 18 goals scored, there is every reason to fancy Benfica here. Their only defeat so far this season came to Porto.

Leipzig have also started strongly – winning four and drawing once, but one of those wins came in a 3-2 German Cup win at Osnabruck and they have kept just a single clear sheet so far. At odds of 8/5, I’m prepared to take a chance on the home side in this one.

Recommended Bet

1pt Benfica to beat Leipzig at 8/5 (General)

#Football