Cluj v Lazio - Europa

The influence of a domestic season’s schedule is often debating in a European context, and whilst it remains on my back-log of myths to prove or debunk, it’s hard to ignore the theoretical advantage enjoyed by teams who are fully up and running at home when it comes to European competition. Of course, being near the end of a long season wouldn’t be ideal, but a squad who have built up some momentum and learned to play with each other much have some sort of advantage right?

Romanian side Cluj perhaps tick that box neatly. Nine domestic games into their season, and a handful of Champions League qualifying matches has ultimately rewarded them with a Europa slot. They are in fine form domestically – 6-2-1 and +17 GD. Including all games this season at their home ground, they have recorded 6-2-2, a GD of +13, and name Celtic and Dinamo Bucharest among their victims. They face Lazio this week.

Lazio are just three games into their season, with a win, a lose and a draw so far. Their performances thus far have been decent enough to be fair, but a trip to Cluj is unlikely to be a comfortable experience for the Italian squad. Lazio sneaked into the competition despite finishing eight in Serie A last season (Cluj won the Romanian league with 77 points from 36 games)

In terms of typical Elo ratings, Cluj have been hovering around 1550 mark for a while now, and are generally on an upward trajectory, although in fairness they are towards the top of a usual Romanian high achiever over the past 7-8 years. Lazio on the other-hand have been in decline over the past few years, dropping from an Elo high of around 1950 at the turn of the millennium gradually down to their current value of 1666 – a point they have been hovering around for the past 6-7 years now.

With home advantage, there is no way Cluj should be as long as 4/1. Dan Petrescu will do his usual job of portraying his side as the underdogs, and that’s probably fair – but they have a great chance of upsetting their more illustrious rivals in this one.

Recommended Bets

1pt Cluj to beat Lazio at 4/1 (General)

2pts Cluj +1 to beat Lazio at 6/5 (SpreadEx)

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