EFL League One

Lots to get stuck into in League One, and we’ll start at Wycombe, where bookmakers are still predicting pre-season favourites Portsmouth will come good. After the opening exchanges, Wycombe are 3rd on 16 points with a +4 goal difference, while Portsmouth are way down in 18th with just six points in the bag and a level goal difference. We should immediately note that Pompey have only played six games to Wycombe’s nine but there is enough evidence available to suggest the Chairboys should keep their guests honest in this one.

Wycombe are 154-95 on the shot data – putting them top of the pile in terms of chances generate in the whole division – and by quite a distance – Bristol Rovers are next in line with 122!. With a shot ratio of 62% they are also sound enough at the back, so they can provide a stern test for Pompey.

The visitors have definitely underachieved so far – they have carded a 66% shot ratio (88-45) so far and are also converting their chances reasonably efficiently. Unbeaten at home, but without a win away is frustrating for them, and at odds of 2/1 I’m definitely prepared to give Wycombe another chance to swell the bank balances.

Tranmere built a successful promotion campaign on a strong home record last season – winning 14 games at Prenton Park, and have already scored 11 times in four home matches this season. Of course a 5-0 mauling of Bolton skews things somewhat, but they netted twice against each of Rochdae, Gillingham and Peterborough. They now need to work on shutting their opponents out if they are to record a second win of the season.

Burton are the visitors this week, who have a handy 6-3-2 record this season, but they may be getting overrated as 5/4 favourites to win away from home in this one. Their overall season record has been massaged by playing (and beating) three League Two sides in the cup. Tranmere have a 56% shot ratio coming into this one, while Burton have achieved just 42%. Now its only fair to point out that the expected goals models are generally attributing better chances to Burton, but not enough to justify the odds on this one.

We tipped Accrington last week, and despite losing to Sunderland they gave a really good account of themselves and might have got more from the match. They welcome Blackpool this weekend who busted our midweek NAP by winning at Doncaster, but I remain convinced that Blackpool are a poor side out of position in the table. Losing 3-0 at home to MK Dons was the first clear sign for those who don’t look at the shot data, but the more subtle signs have been lingering for a good while longer. A 42% shot-ratio belies their position in the table and I’m inclined to predict a demise over the coming months.

Accrington have just one win from eight league matches, but they have competed in all their fixtures this season and fans shouldn’t be concerned by their early league form. Things will improve and ods of 2/1 are good for the hosts here in the Lancashire derby.

Finally, Southend gave us a battling performance on Tuesday, scoring three times but still ending up losing out to Shrewsbury. They travel to MK Dons this weekend who are another side struggling, and the hosts definitely shouldn’t be as short as 4/7 for this one.

The Shrimpers have gradually improved this season, but Gary Waddock needs to see those performances converted into points sooner rather than later. Now seems a decent time to strike for that first win against one of the weaker sides in the division. Plenty of firms will give you 9/2 on this one.

Recommended Bets

1pt Wycombe to beat Portsmouth at 2/1 (Bet365)

2pts Tranmere to beat Burton at 5/2 (Bet365)

1pt Accrington to beat Blackpool at 2/1 (Bet365)

1pt Southend to beat MK Dons at 9/2 (General)

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