EFL League Two

Just the one bet grabbed my attention in League Two, where Crewe should be stronger favourites to beat Salford than the quotes of 10/11 suggest. Alex have banked a 57% shot ratio this season, rising to 62% when only looking at on-target efforts. They have out-shot each of the four sides to visit The Alexandra Stadium this season, and whilst results haven’t always mirrored that, they are a decent side nevertheless.

Goals have flowed freely at Crewe this season which has ensured draw’s haven’t been a common theme – in fact the over 2.5 goal line has been passed in nine of their 11 matches so far.

Salford have won three, lost three and drawn five in all competitions this season, but are yet to win away from home and our model tells us they have been over performance against their baselines this season. Stevenage and Aston Villa U23s are two of the three sides they have beaten, which doesn’t look great and they still face a long hard season ahead in our eyes. Get with Crewe is the advice here.

2.2pts Crewe to beat Salford at 10/11 (Betfred)

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