Wolfsburg v Hoffenheim - Monday

The loss of Julian Nagelsmann has been felt heavily at Hoffenheim this season after their influential leader departed to join up with RB Leipzig over the summer. That was around the same time they were waving goodbye to Joelinton (Newcastle for £40m), Nico Schulz (Dortmund), and Kerem Demirbay (Leverkusen). Three pivotal players and a manager gone in the blink of an eye.

It's hard to know exactly how much that will have hurt them - but they are unlikely to get anywhere near last season's 9th place in the table again (they ended the season on +18 GD last time around which was fourth best in Bundesliga). So far this season they have won once, drawn twice and lost twice and look to be about where they deserve. A lower-middle table finish looks fathomable this season.

They travel to Wolfsburg this Monday, who are unbeaten after four league matches, or six matches in total. They have beaten Cologne, Hertha and Oleksandria in the Europa League, and drawn with Fortuna and Paderborn. Their Bundesliga matches have seen them record a 58% shot-ratio - 53-58, suggesting they are highly organised, and 20-10 on-target efforts (67%). That compares to 40% for Hoffenheim (48-71) and 29% on-target (10-24).

With stats like that I'm more than happy to be with Wolfsburg in this one, and plan on getting the money down early as I can see the punters latching onto this one nearer the day.

3pts Wolfsburg to beat Hoffenheim at 19/20 (Bet365)

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