Ligue 1 - Wednesday

Over in France, we have a couple of small fancies on Wednesday.

Nantes welcome Rennes, with the visitors mammoth over-achievers on the early season data, and perhaps over-rated by the market as a result.

Understat.com present an xG table which includes Expected Points from their simulation model, and it currently places Rennes bottom of "expected points" after their opening six matches. They have been attributed 5.22 expected points against the 11 they have actually won, while they have also "over scored" (seven versus expected 4.52) and "under conceded" (four versus 8.17 expected).

True, they have played both PSG and Lille already, but they have also had the extra exertions of participating in the Europa League last week against Celtic, meaning they come into this on a Thursday - Sunday - Wednesday sequence of matches.

Nantes have been in a tough run of matches as well of course, and have have already played Marseille, Lille and Montpellier. Very little split the pair last season and Nantes also showed good home throughout the campaign. I'd be closer to evens than the 13/10 available on the hosts.

For an away side Bordeaux warrant some support when they visit Amiens. The hosts are another side who have taken their chances efficiently this season, and there is every chance things regress to more usual levels. They have scored seven times from just 49 shots this season, while conceding just nine from almost twice that number against (90). That puts Amiens on a 35% shot-ratio and 34% shot-on-target ratio. Compare that to Bordeaux who are on 53% (82-72) ad 60% (27-18).

Marathon offer 85/40 on the away win in this one.

Recommended Bets

1pt Nantes to beat Rennes at 13/10 (General)

1pt Bordeaux to beat Amiens at 85/40 (Marathon)

#Football