Serie A - Wednesday

Sassuolo travel to Parma this mid-week looking to pick up their first away points of the season after tricky trips to Torino and Roma so far. They beat Spal 3-0 at the weekend which was a comfortable enough victory and have a definite momentum advantage after Parma were soundly beaten 2-0 at Lazio.

Parma look a side on the downgrade at the moment after narrowly avoiding the drop last campaign – actually finishing the season on the 3rd worst goal difference and placing 18th in the majority of the xG based xPts models last season. Whether this season will see them relegated only time will tell, but they have opened with three defeats from four matches so it’s hardly a solid start.

Sassuolo have achieved 51-37 (58%) shot ratio numbers thus far, with 30-22 on-target (58%), which bodes well for another mid-table finish this season. That compares favourable with Parma – 28-54 (34%) and 16-35 (31%) although it should be noted they have already faced Juventus and Lazio. At 9/5 it’s worth chancing the away side in this one.

Another mid-week traveler who could provide value are Lecce, who look a chunky 11/4 ahead of their trip to Spal. We opposed Spal on Sunday successfully and this is a quick turnaround for both clubs.

A look at the league table might leave you scratching your heads here - Lecce have conceded 10 goals in just four games this season, but its worth noting that eight of those came against Inter and Napoli, with neither result really doing them justice.

Looking at the underlaying data from the matches to date, Lecce have had tougher matches, but returned very similar numbers to Spal – if anything perhaps slightly better. This would surely be a pick-em match on a neutral venue, so having Spal odds-on here is giving them too much respect in my view. Let’s take a chance on the new-boys springing an upset with a win in this one.

Recommended Bets

1pt Sassuolo to beat Parma at 9/5 (Betfair, Betway, Unibet)

1pt Lecce to beat Spal at 11/4 (Betfair)

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