Weekend xG Review - Lucked in or Bad Beat?

We take a trip through the results over the weekend to summarise where the right and wrong results came from England’s top four divisions.

Premier League

Southampton (2.2 xG) v Bournemouth (1.3 xG)

Southampton came away with nothing, while Bournemouth projected themselves into to upper echelons of the table, but in reality the hosts probably played the better football over 90minutes.

Man City (6.8 xG) v Watford (0.3 xG)

Just wow. This is almost certainly the biggest xG on the books for any top flight match in recent years. Enough said.

Everton (1.05 xG) v Sheffield United (0.52 xG)

Something of a smash and grab here as Everton suffered a rare defeat to a side weaker than them. The Toffees have an exceptional home record v bottom-half sides, and they deserved to maintain that strong run. Congratulations for the Blades for setting themselves up with a game plan, which came off in this match.

Arsenal (2.14 xG) v Aston Villa (1.69 xG)

Arsenal conceded more xG’s this weekend than any other home side, and over 2.5 goals is going to continue to interest punters for some time to come. They will always score goals, with Aubameyang creating as many chances as he always does, but the defence is a serious concern. There are a few banana skins ahead for Arsenal who could be worth opposing occasionally.

Championship

Birmingham (0.7 xG) v Preston (0.7 xG)

Preston were a shade fortunate to collect the points at Birmingham after creating just 0.7 expected goals. They conceded exactly the same numbers, so they continue to display themselves as one of the sides to consider strongly for Under 2.5 Goals in the coming weeks.

Leeds (2.6 xG) v Derby (0.3 xG)

The hosts created plenty of chances, and should have been out of sight by the time Derby struck late on. Leeds were already at over 2.5 xG when Derby had their first effort of note. If Leeds let down you’re coupon, you’ve been very unlucky indeed – Derby recorded just 0.3 xG by the end, with all of that coming in the final ten minutes.

Millwall (1.5 xG) v QPR (1.2 xG)

QPR have been gaining rave reviews recently, which will only be strengthened by another three points on the road. The truth was they were probably lucky

Sheff Wed (1.7 xG) v Fulham (1.0 xG)

Fulham are still hot-stuff in the Championship, but were probably lucky to take a point from this one. Wednesday had enough chances to win the game at Hillsborough.

League One

Bolton (0.8 xG) v Sunderland (2.0 xG)

Bolton continue to improve, and they kept Sunderland honest at the weekend. You shouldn’t be piling into sides at 2/5 at Bolton any longer, but if you did this weekend, it’s fair to say you were unlucky not to get away with it as the Black Cats did enough to warrant taking the points home on Saturday.

Gillingham (0.9 xG) v Ipswich (1.1 xG)

Ipswich are back on top of the table after a win at Gillingham, but they only just about shaded the game, and neither manager could have complained if this had ended level. Portsmouth and Sunderland are failing to live up to pre-season hype, so could this be Ipswich’s year?

Lincoln (0.8 xG) v Oxford (1.2 xG)

Incredible result this weekend as Oxford hit six from apparently very few clean cut chances. Everything just ended in the back of the net, so a reaction from Lincoln could well see them value in the coming week or two as they weren’t even all that bad!

MK Dons (2.1 xG) v Southend (1.0 xG)

We “lucked in” with the big price Southend pick, as they were definitely second best to MK Dons, but you take the big prices and sometimes need that luck to get paid. MK Dons may have benefitted from game state meaning they chased the game throughout. Have Southend turned a corner? Perhaps.

League Two

Crewe (1.5 xG) v Salford (1.4xG)

If you backed Crewe this weekend, you should probably breathe a small sigh of relief for getting paid. Salford were value for their half-time lead, and while Crewe ultimately topped the xG count, it was pretty close, and Salford were definitely not three goals inferior here.

Forest Green (0.4xG) v Stevenage (1.6xG)

This one says a lot about how bad Forest Green are, and how false their league position is. They created absolutely nothing against one of the weaker sides in the division despite home advantage, and they really are due a slide down the table sooner rather than later.

Plymouth (2.1 xG) v Cheltenham (1.0 xG)

Plymouth were unlucky to come out of this one with nothing, and could arguably have taken all three points. Over’s backers have been targeting Plymouth, and regardless of the outcome of this one, it was probably the right bet again over the weekend.

#Football