Scottish League One

There is plenty to like in League One this weekend, starting at Airdrie, where the hosts should expect a relatively easy ride against Stranraer.

Airdrie have opened the season with 10 points from seven games and they are probably something around mid-table quality this season – confirmed through their shot data which is showing around a 48% ratio (67-72) and perhaps slightly behind in their accuracy.

Whilst their games have been low scoring, there have been enough chances created to suggest that’s more of an anomaly than a pattern we should expect to continue indefinitely. It’s also worth noting that Airdrie have tended to beat who they should, and lose to who they should. Each of the four sides above them in the table – Raith, East Fife, Falkirk and Forfar have taken points from them, while Dumbarton, Clyde and Montrose have all been beaten.

Stranraer are very much in the latter group, and have now conceded a whopping 19 goals in their opening seven league games. Their last four matches have seen them ship three to Falkirk, six to Clyde, two against Peterhead and three to Dumbarton. A long season ahead looms. In 12 matches this season in all competitions, they have conceded two or more in nine.

Airdrie are worth backing to win the match at 88/100 i(1.88) n this one, and also perhaps splitting stakes on them to score 2+ goals at 5/6 with Bet365.

After three straight wins at home, and seven wins in their last nine matches, Raith look great value to win at Forfar this weekend.

Their hosts are handily placed fourth in the League One table, but a run of five defeats in their last seven doesn’t bode well. In fact, book-ending their winless run of six matches through August and September were wins against Montrose and Stranraer, who look comfortably the worst sides in the division on the early evidence, so we should perhaps not read too much into those. With six goals in seven matches, Forfar lack a potency, and their shot data is concerning – 56-88 so far this season (39%) and only marginally better in on-target-efforts – 26-36 (42%).

Raith are loving this season, with 18 goals already scored in their first seven matches. Although it’s very likely they have enjoyed a bit of luck along the way (scoring a goal from every four shots is certainly unsustainable over the longer-term), they are nevertheless a decent side who will be in the play-off hunt this season.

Over the season I’d still be with Falkirk to come out on top, but Raith won’t be a million miles behind and deserve to be backed at 6/4 in this one with Bet365

Recommended Bets

1.5pts Airdrie to beat Stranraer at 88/100 (William Hill)

1.5pts Airdrie to score 2+ goals at 5/6 (Bet365 or Sky Bet)

2pts Raith to beat Forfar at 6/4 (Bet365)

#Football