National League

Two sides we successfully investigated in midweek clash on Saturday as Barrow welcome Maidenhead to Holker Street, and frankly, I think the market is way off on this one.

Only a point splits the pair in the table, with Barrow slightly better off, but underlaying performances suggest one side have a play-off push in them (if not better), while the other will do well to stay clear of the lower reaches of the division.

Just past the 1/4 point in the season, and Barrow have recorded a 57% shot ratio (143-109) an equally strong shot-on-target metric. A slow start to the season which saw them win just twice in their opening nine matches has been replaced with a much stronger September – wins over Aldershot, Solihull, Ebbsfleet and Chorley driving their surge up the table.

Maidenhead are at the other end of the scale on our shot data – sitting plum last after 12 games (data not updated for mid-week matches yet) on a miserly 41% shot ratio (97-142), an equally bad 46-61 (43% on-target) and a negative 21 on the corner count.

They were soundly beaten by Dover on Tuesday despite the result showing just a single goal difference, and despite Barrow failing to really dominate Chorley in the same way, they did at least do enough to take the points. All things considered, BetVictor opened at 6/4 on Barrow and while that went quickly there is still 13/10, and I think it should be odds-on

4pts Barrow to beat Maidenhead at 13/10 (General)

#Football