Sky Bet League One

Wycombe Wanderers did the business for us last week thanks to a battling effort against Portsmouth and they could be worth supporting again this weekend when they face a potentially weary and emotionally drained Rochdale.

The Spotland club have seen more than their fair share of cup drama over the last few years, but losing on penalties at Old Trafford must be up there in terms of disappointing final scenes. That was Wednesday night of course, which leaves limited turn around to regroup, pick themselves up and go again for Saturday, with a full-strength XI named for that one.

Rochdale have won just one of their home league matches this season – a 5-2 win against the Bolton kids, so it hardly really counts, and aside from Bolton they have the worst shot ratio in the division – just 40% (86-127) and almost the worst shot-on-target ratio as well at 43% (32-42). They definitely look a club who can raise themselves for the one-off occasions, but struggle to reproduce that week-in week-out.

Wycombe by contrast are absolutely flying – 3rd in the division after five wins and four draws from their opening ten league matches. Home advantage has been key of course, with 16 of their 19 points collected at Adams Park, but they have also lost just once on the road this season and should be trusted to get the job done this week at decent odds.

I’ve tended to be against Sunderland in recent months, although they have repeatedly claimed points against the seeming run of play when evaluating the shot-data. One thing which is unquestionable however is that they love playing at the Stadium of Light. Since dropping into League One they have played 27 League matches on their own patch, losing just once – an overall record of 14-12-1 and a goals For/Against of 53-29.

This week they face MK Dons – a side who look likely to seriously struggle this year, and whom are probably flattered to be 15th in the table so far. They have allowed 148 shots against in their opening nine league games – only Bolton have been less organised at the back.

The Black Cats can be backed at 3/4 (1.75) to win this one, and that looks a bit toppy for a match they really should be winning.

Recommended Bets

2pts Wycombe to beat Rochdale at 6/4 (General)

2pts Sunderland to beat MK Dons at 3/4 (Bet365)

#Football