Bundesliga Sat/Sun

Regular readers will know that this site isn't about predicting winners or outcomes. It's about predicting when the price available is better than the likelihood of a particular outcome occurring, and despite RB Leipzig sitting on top of the German top flight, I can't help but feel they are not quite the side they appear on the early evidence.

The table-toppers have won six and drawn once this season, but their shot data (67-60) certainly doesn't support the dominant results they have turned in. On-Target efforts (32-18) suggest they have been employing a patient game, and they have made the most of their attacks with high quality efforts.

At the back though, they are less dependable, conceding in five of their matches so far.

Schalke visit this weekend, and we reckon there is value in away side to keep things interesting. They have won four from six this season, with only Bayern Munich defeating them so far. They've already scored 15 goals as well. They are available at 5/4 to win on the +0.75 Asian Handicap. That means you split your stake on the +0.5 handicap and the +1.0. If Schalke win or draw, you'll win the bet at 5/4. If RB Leipzig win by a single goal, you'll get half you stake back, and if RB win by more than a goal, you lose. Simple right?

1pt Schalke to win +0.75 Asian handicap at 5/4 (General)

The Bundesliga is always well known for goals, and Fortuna Dusseldorf and Freiburg could well fit the bill as a match likely to deliver on that trend.

The hosts have averaged 30.8 shots on goal (for and against combined) this season, with Freiburg a very similar 30.4. Our model has this game with an expectancy of well north of three goals, and games this season have backed it up.

Fortuna have played six times, and seen Over 2.5 Goals cop in five of those. In six matches there have been 20 goals - an average of 3.33 goals per game. Freiburg have gone Over 2.5 Goals four times in six matches, but the total count is a little lower with 16 goals in all - an average of 2.66 goals per game.

Nevertheless, we're backing goals in this one.

2pts Fortuna v Freiburg Over 2.5 Goals at 4/6 (Marathon)

1pt Fortuna v Freiburg Over 3.5 Goals at 13/8 (General)

#Football