Sky Bet Championship

Just a couple of fancies in the Championship, starting with odds-on Preston who face Barnsley. The hosts have surprisingly scored 17 times this season – making them the top scorers in the division. It’s surprising for a couple of reasons – firstly, pre-season expectations were modest at best, and secondly, they have bagged that haul despite having just 83 shots on goal – the lowest in the division with the exception of Charlton.

Their real strength is at the back – they have allowed just 91 shots against, which means they always have a chance of winning tight matches and they come into this one with a 48% shot ratio and 51% shot on target ratio. Fortunately, their xG looks a good deal better – scoring over 60% of Expected Goals in their matches, which correlates closely with the end-result (17 for, 10 against).

Barnsley look much weaker overall. Their shot ratios (47%) and on-target 42% don't look great, while their xG numbers give them less than 40% ratio which has to be a concern. That’s bourne out through just five goals scored all season, and so far delivered a run of zero away goals in four matches (three defeats and one draw at Wigan). All in all, Preston look a cornerstone for any accumulator this weekend.

Elsewhere, QPR have been another surprise package this campaign, and the 11/8 available on them beating Tony Mowbray’s Blackburn tempts. QPR will be hoping to bounce back after two consecutive losses to decent West Brom and Cardiff sides, but prior to that they have managed wins over Wigan, Sheffield Wednesday, Luton and Millwall to position them nicely for a play-off challenge.

Blackburn are just a couple of points back, and after a couple of defeats to open the season have now begun to pick up results and are being challenged to finish nearer the top than the bottom. It looks achievable, but it’s hard to rank them above QPR in terms of all round ability right now. QPR boast a 57% shot ratio versus just 48% for Blackburn and are far less reliant on set plays to open up games. At 11/8 they look a decent selection for the weekend.

2pts Preston to beat Barnsley at 7/10 (Marathon)

1pt QPR to beat Blackburn at 11/8 (Bet Victor)

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