World Darts Grand Prix - Sunday - Part 1

No fewer than eight matches get us going at the City West Hotel, Dublin for the World Grand Prix.

All 1st round matches are played in a best of three sets format, with each set determined via a best of five legs. The winning of the bull-off will have the darts in the first and third sets, where crucially, there is no "win by two clear" legs - a 3-2 win in the final set does it for you.

It's double in, double out. That means having the darts is marginally less important, and 180s are likely to drop by around 6% overall due to the fact you cannot hit one on your first visit. Nine darters are also less common for the same reason.

Ricky Evans v Chris Dobey

A tight one here, with the winner likely to play Gary Anderson in Round Two. Evans and Dobey are probably two of the weaker players in the draw and the bookies have it right making Dobey a marginal favourite. The 180s lines also look about right, with neither player standing out, so it's the check out markets we need to raid in this match. Both players love a Double 16 out route - Evans landing D16 in 27% of his winning legs, and Dobey in 26%. With that in mind, we need to get with the first leg winning check-out colour being Green. Betway offer 2/1, making it a 33% chance, but our data puts it closer to 39%.

1pt First Leg CheckOut to be Green at 2/1 (Betway)

Mervyn King v Dimitri van den Bergh

We are still waiting for van den Bergh to really deliver on his potential, and he's currently 14th in the World on our rankings. Mervyn King is a good draw in the first round, so Dimitri should progress but there is a tough route to the final, so it could be as good as it gets. For a bet here, the 180s makes most appeal with the fair both in for something around 0.22-0.23 per leg on a double in-double out format. That should see us expecting around 4.5-4.6 in the match, so the Over 3.5 180s at 4/5 with UniBet seems solid.

1pt Over 3.5 180s at 4/5 (Unibet)

Joe Cullen v Ian White

Ian White continues to be a hugely under-rated darts player in my eyes - and our ratings actually put him well inside the top 8 in the world currently. The last time the pair met was in the World Matchplay, where Ian 'Diamond' White completed a 10-0 whitewash. he's won nine to Joe's three in their overall battles.

There are a couple of bets I like in this one. Firstly, the 4/7 available about White winning this one is too long given recent history and form. The second is in the 180s, where Cullen is overpriced at 15/8 with Betfair Sportsbook. The pair hit maximums at almost exactly the same rate, so to be twice the price of White looks wrong against our data.

2pts Ian White to beat Joe Cullen at 4/7 (William Hill)

1pt Joe Cullen most 180s at 15/8 (Betfair Sportsbook)

Jeffrey de Zwaan v Steve Beaton

The Bronzed Adonis continued presence on tour shows that you really cannot keep a good man down. I had the pleasure of playing Beaton a few years ago, and can tell you now, I've been a huge fan ever since. He is outsider to de Zwaan in this one and with the winner playing MvG in the next round it could be one of the less dramatic matches on Sunday night. There isn't a lot to call between the players, but it's worth noting the Dutchman leads their head-to-head record 5-0, winning 30 legs to Beaton's 14. I'll watch this one and cheer on Beaton, but it will be through the heart not the wallet. This is a no-bet match.

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