World Darts Grand Prix - Sunday - Part 2

James Wade v John Henderson

The pair have met eight times before, with Wade winning seven of those, although it's worth noting the one match which did go Henderson's way was their only meeting in 2019 - just last month in Barnsley.

Neither player has been smashing down the maximums lately, and whilst Henderson hits marginally more, its not enough of a difference to justify Hills putting Wade up at 12/5 to hit the most. Our projections put Henderson on an expectation of around 2.38 180s, with Wade on 1.77, It's pretty close, and both could be low. A single 180s either way could win this, and that makes it worth siding with the outsider.

Both players always take out the D20, D10 route, and their obsession with this hasn't been reflected in Betway's offer of 30/100 about the first leg finishing on a Red Double. We make it around a 1/5 shot, so it's value here.

1pt Wade to hit most 180s at 12/5 (Hills)

3pts 1st Leg Double to be Red at 3/10 (Betway)

Michael Smith v Simon Whitlock

Smith is the far superior player in this match up, and holds a marginal historical advantage. It's not a surprise to see Smith at 1/2, but I can't back it over such a short format - especially with Whitlock looking to be in quite a happy place right now. The pair are both very capable of striking the lipstick regularly - Smith averages 0.3 180s per leg, while Whitlock is around 0.255. On those numbers we might expect something in the region of 5.7 180s in this one. Betway offer Evens on Over 4.5 180s in this and that looks huge to me.

3pts Over 4.5 180s in the match at 11/10 (Betway)

Michael van Gerwen v Jamie Hughes

Michael van Gerwen has won this event four times in the past, but as yet, has been unable to successfully defend it. Could this be his year or will that pattern continue? It looks more than possible, after the draw saw him placed in the opposite side to Suljovic, Cross, Wright and Price - and he won't fear Jamie Hughes in their first professional meeting. With MvG priced at between 1/7 and 2/9, there isn't much juice when you consider the double-in double-out format and the first to two sets.

Instead, the 180s should probably be pitched slightly higher than Under/Over 3.5. Spreadex will give you 8/11 on the match seeing Over 3.5 and we make that closer to 1/2 on our data.

1pt Over 3.5 180s at 8/11 (SpreadEx)

Gary Anderson v Keegan Brown

Finally, Gary Anderson has come out on top of all five meetings between these two in the past, but the key question we always have to answer these days is whether Anderson is fit to perform. He played in Barnsley a fotnight ago, and averaged over 100 in four of his five matches, as he lost in the Quarter Finals. He's clearly still got plenty to give.

Since coming back properly in June, Anderson was a winner in the World Cup of Darts, a semi-finalist once on the Players Championship, and has five times made the quarter-finals. He should have enough for Brown in this one. It's another no-bet match this one though.

#Darts