Bologna v Lazio

Just two places split Bologna and Lazio in Serie A last season, but it was a more significant gap in terms of points, as Lazio came out 15 points better off. It's a big gap to close, but Bologna will see this season's target as European qualification. Getting points against sides like Lazio will be important if they are to achieve that goal - so today looks an important match for them.

Early performance data gives them a good chance though - they have achieved a 60% shot ratio and have forged out plenty of possession in their opponents final 3rd. So much in fact that the Understat.com tables place them 2nd in the table on Expected Points (generated through multiple simulations of expected goals based on shot quality). They are therefore probably the most unlucky team in Serie A so far this season.

Lazio have been impressive this campaign, scoring 11 for just four in reply, but they have been overachieving based on their shots (89-53 @ 62%) and it could be that we see some sort of regression to the mean sooner or later.

Neither side is reporting much in the way of team news, so we reckon the 13/5 on Bologna is too long here with home advantage.

1pt Bologna to beat Lazio at 13/5 (Bet Victor)

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