World Grand Prix - Tuesday

James Wade v Mervyn King

Mervyn King always seems to enjoy playing James Wade – they have met 46 times in the past, with the wins almost split down the middle, with Wade 24-22 ahead. Given Wade has been the higher ranked player in almost every one of those meetings, it’s incredible that King has kept it so close over such a large sample and there has to be something in that one for me.

The players are about as different as they come in the stats, with King scoring modestly and always moving to the D16 out-route, while Wade always prefers to go down the Tops exit route whenever possible.

Most recent meetings have seen King come out on top in five of their eight matches since 2016, so he continues to be capable of producing the upsets.

In terms of bets, this one looks a feast. We’ll start in the 180s, where our model makes King odds-on to out max Wade. The leg averages compare at 0.17 per leg for Wade and 0.21 for King. Those are adjusted for the format. With the match likely to go somewhere in the order of 16-17 legs that’s enough to make a difference. Boyles offer 11/10 on him hitting the most. We’ll also take Sky Bet’s 13/8 on King hitting Over 3.5, which looks generous.

Finally, King has upset Wade so many times its impossible to ignore the 21/10 with Betfair about him doing the same again over such a short format, and the sets coming into play as well.

1pt King Most 180s at 11/10 (Boyles)

1pt King Over 3.5 180s at 13/8 (Sky Bet)

1pt King to win the match at 21/10 (Betfair Sportsbook)

Michael Smith v Ian White

Both players survived scares in the notoriously difficult 1st round, so it's perhaps a bonus for both that they are meeting here. Smith has a handy 12-6 head-to-head advantage over White, but Diamond is playing as well as he has for a long time (if not ever) and will certainly run him close here. I was a backer at 11/10 on White, but the market is into Evens now, and its probably short enough to go about dishing out tips on him winning. Either way it's going to be very close between these two in my view.

Smith is definitely the stronger maximum builder of the pair, and he's expected to hit around 0.31 per leg under this format. Ian White is closer to 0.22. With a longer match quite likely, that gives Smith a decent advantage, so Boyle Sports 11/10 is absolutely too long.

We could see a few in this match, and Over 7.5 180s is also a decent bet at 11/10, or Over 8.5 at 7/4. Both would have a great chance of landing if we saw four sets or more.

2pts Smith Most 180s at 11/10 - Boyles

1pt Over 7.5 180s at 11/10 - Sky Bet

0.5pts Over 8.5 180s at 7/4 - Sky Bet

Michael van Gerwen v Jeffrey de Zwaan

De Zwaan is often talked up as the next big thing in Dutch darts. I've never seen it as yet and can't see an upset against MvG here, who is looking for a fifth title in Dublin. At 1/4 to win this one though, there probably isn't a great angle either way now MvG is beyond the dodgy first round.

Looking for the value in this one, MvG to hit the most 180s is fair enough at 6/5. Our model is showing nearer 10/11 on this, so it's a sliver of value worth adding to our Monday night staking plan.

I also think the 180s lines are low in this one overall - with BoyleSports offering 13/10 on there being Over 7.5. My ratings suggest we'll see around 0.51 180s per leg, which would expect to see us land this bet if there were 15 or 16 legs in the match or more. That's more than possible in my eyes. Ladbrokes will give you 10/11 on MvG hitting more than 3.5 as well - our price suggests that could be closer to 8/13.

1pt MvG most 180s at 6/5 (SpreadEx)

1pt Over 7.5 180s at 13/10 (Boyles)

1.1pts MvG Over 3.5 180s at 10/11 (Ladbrokes)

Gary Anderson v Chris Dobey

Gary Anderson gets another late slot on night three for his match with Chris Dobey and a decent performance in the first round sees him going off the 4/11 favourite here. His 40% record on doubles showed he has lost none of his touch - although that was exactly the same as Dobey achieved against Evans.

It's a familiar theme this one - Anderson averages a lot more maximums than Dobey (expectancy in this one is 0.31 v 0.22) so despite Dobey hitting more in round one (3 to 2), I'm with the Scot to hit the most here at 10/11 with Coral and Ladrokes.

One aspect of Dobey's game is his lack of big combination outs. He checks out 100+ in just 8.2% of his legs, compared to 13% of Anderson's - a sizable difference. When you consider that Anderson is in for more legs anyway, the 8/11 on the Scott getting the first 100+ check out looks decent value as well.

1.1pts Anderson to hit Most 180s at 10/11 (Corals)

1.1pts Anderson to hit 1st 100+ CO at 8/11 (General)

#Darts