National League - Saturday

Barrow have done us proud of late, winning a run of games when we’ve been behind them, and in total taking their streak to seven straight wins. Things get a bit tougher this weekend with the visit of a very decent Dover side under the guidance of Andy Hessenthaler, but the hosts can extend their excellent record at a very attractive price here.

Barrow have carded a divisional best 58% shots in their matches, and exactly the same ratio for shots-on-target. They are definitely among the best sides in the division after a dodgy opening start and are the one team I would choose to avoid if I could in that league.

Now Dover are decent – six away wins already this season, but they come here having been thrashed 4-0 at Aldershot. I’m yet to receive the data from that match, but it’s likely their overall shot-ratio numbers won’t have improved after that one. In short, the 7/5 with UniBet is too big here.

AFC Fylde have been struggling of late and are currently embroiled in an early season relegation battle. The numbers they are posting are positive however underneath – second only to Barrow in shot-ratio for instance, and it’s impossible to imagine a scenario where results don’t start to pick up as fortune balances itself out over the longer run. That can start this weekend against a Sutton side who are not creating anything like enough chances.

Sutton have created just 100 shots in 15 matches (Fylde by comparison have taken 193), landing 40 on target (Fylde have posted 65 on-target). That’s just not good enough in this division and it is Sutton rather than Fylde who occupy my thoughts in terms of who might end the season in relegation trouble. Fylde won’t have many better opportunities to get their season kick-started, and should be backed here at Evens.

2pts Barrow to beat Dover at 7/5 (UniBet)

2pts Fylde to beat Sutton at evens

#Football