Sky Bet League Two

If there was an award for the team who have enjoyed the most rub of the green, Forest Green would already have their first bit of silverware this season. Their level of over achievement is absolutely off the scale quite frankly, as they sit top of League Two, peering down at the rest.

24 points from their opening 12 matches is a tremendous haul – most remarkably because all the Expected Goals models suggest they should more reasonably be well inside the bottom half, probably closer to the relegation zone than mid-table. Our shot table is showing them with the worst shot-ratio in the entire division – just 41% of shots in their games, and 48% of on-target efforts.

They take on Exeter this weekend, making this a top-of-the-table clash, and all the data suggests that Exeter are absolutely there on merit – posting the best shot-ratio in the division and also the strongest xG numbers of anyone.

Exeter are on offer at 87/100 with Marathon, and that surely won’t last until the weekend, so it could pay to strike now before the market starts to shift.

The other side we like this weekend are Crawley, who welcome Colchester. Crawley are without doubt the most likely side to play their part in an entertaining match – their matches this season have averaged 30 shots, a full 20% above the league average. With 209 shots there are the most successful side in attack, and that’s resulting in 19 goals – only Cheltenham have managed more.

Unfortunately it’s the same story at the other end, and they have also leaked 19 goals – only a handful of sides have performed worse in that regard.

Now in terms of ratios, there isn’t a great deal to split the pair – Crawley recording 58% of shots, and Colchester 54%. On target Colchester have been better – 58% v 48% for Crawley. But is that enough of a difference to see the hosts priced up at 17/10 to win this one? I’m not convinced at all. While it’s true Crawley haven’t won in six (and have lost their last three) it’s also fair to point out they have scored in each of their last eight matches, so will always be a runner in any game.

Betfair, Betway and Unibet all offer 17/10 on Crawley and that is juicy enough to warrant an early bet.

3pts Exeter to beat Forest Green at 87/100 (Marathon) – 4/5 still acceptable when that price moves

1pt Crawley to beat Colchester at 17/10 (General)

#Football