Michael van Gerwen v Mervyn King

Top seed MvG is through to the third round and things get a little less dicey from here on, so you can understand why the bookies make the Dutchman a 1/7 shot here.

He is 29-12 ahead in the series, which makes him a hot favourite, but I'm not a player at those odds in this one. Instead the 180s markets could provide us with the value in this one.

Our model is returning MvG as an 8/11 shot to hit the most 180s in this match, but Coral's and Ladbrokes are prepared to offer 11/10 about that eventuality. MvG is in for around 25% more than King and the match could reasonably last somewhere in the region or 15 or 16 legs. It's enough time to make the difference tell, and I'm happy to be a backer at that price.

Similarly, we have the match in for a total expectancy of around 7.5 180s on average, which makes the 1/1 on Over 6.5 180s look decent value with Bet365.

William Hill and Ladbrokes disagree on MvG 180s - Laddies offering even money on the Dutchman hitting more than 3.5, while Hills will give you evens on the other side. It's just about making your mind up, and we are going to raid Ladbrokes for this one. Our model suggests it should be nearer 4/6 even under this format and they look to have adjusted too much for the double in format.

Three bets in this one then:

3pts MvG to hit Most 180s at 11/10 (Coral / Ladbrokes)

1.1pt Over 6.5 180s in the Match at 1/1 (Bet365)

2pts MvG Over 3.5 180s at Evens (Ladbrokes)

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