Sky Bet League One

Bolton Wanderers – bottom of League Two, (-23) goal difference, 12 points adrift at the bottom and without a win all season. Could this be the week they finally start winning? We reckon it just might be, and at 2/1 they represent decent value.

So despite those stark statistics where are we finding the glimmer of light?

Let’s start with their home form. Despite all the troubles this season, they have actually shared the honours at the University of Bolton Stadium in five of their six games this season – holding Coventry, Bradford, Oxford, Sunderland and Blackpool to draws. Overall form has improved as well – since the takeover went through they have gone DLDDLDD, and their expected goals numbers have been steadily improving.

They take on Rochdale this week, who prior to a 2-1 win over Accrington on Saturday had failed to win in eight. Since the start of September Dale have lost league matches at Peterborough (6-0), Fleetwood (2-1) and AFC Wimbledon (3-2). Over their past six matches they have accounted for just 38% of shots in their matches and 33% of shots-on-target, while their expected points this season are just 11.

Then of course we have the Keith Hill factor. Hill has managed Rochdale for the majority of the last decade, so would surely love to win this one. He also knows the personnel inside out, having only left the club in March.

After opposing Bolton heavily early in the season, it’s time to change tact and get with the Trotters – with 2/1 still available with BlackType and plenty of others giving 19/10. Should they win, it will be a hugely popular victory.

Fleetwood Town are really well placed for a serious promotion challenge after collecting 20 points from their opening 11 matches. That rate would see them finish the season on something in the region of 83-84pts – so the stakes are high when they entertain Burton this weekend.

All the performance data suggests Fleetwood deserve their lofty position, with the side ranking 1st for Expected Goals ratio, 2nd for Expected Goals difference, 3rd for Shot Ratio and 4th for Shots-On-Target Ratio. All in all a very good season so far.

Burton are no mugs, but their 14th place in the table is probably only marginally where they might have expected to be at this point on the balance of chances created and they look every bit a mid-table outfit this season. That simply has to move Fleetwood into the value territory at 6/5 in this one, and we’d probably make them slightly odds-on to get the points in this one.

Finally, Bristol Rovers are enjoying life under Graham Coughlan, who is soon to bring up his first full year in charge. Win over MK Dons, Rotherham, Chelsea U21 and AFC Wimbledon in recent weeks mean they come into this weekend looking to make it five wins on the bounce, and are also looking to protect an eight match unbeaten run.

Doncaster stand in the way this weekend, and have now lost their last three matches – conceding eight goals and they have disappointed us regularly this season. Most recently, they have managed just 44% of shots-on-target in their matches, and look to be struggling to maintain their early standards. Rovers by contrast are now topping the shot-ratio table for recent matches – managing 61% of the shots in their last six matches. It’s not one to go mad on, but 11/4 is generally available, which is long enough to make the shortlist.

Recommended Bets

2pts Bolton to beat Rochdale at 19/10 (General)

2pts Fleetwood to beat Bristol Rovers at 6/5 (BetVictor)

1pt Bristol Rovers to beat Doncaster at 11/4 (General)

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