Sky Bet League Two - Saturday

Crawley Town pretty much guarantee excitement every time they take the field – managing 259 shots this season already – the next closest in the shots-table have taken 221, and it’s showed as they have scored 23 times this season. It’s a problem at the other end as well though, with 186 allowed and that’s led to 46 goals in their 15 games so far – an average of 3.06 per match.

They take on Swindon this weekend, who are a side who look like pivoting downhill after a strong opening set of fixtures. Tuesday’s 1-0 win over Stevenage was pretty comfortable, but prior to that they had failed to beat Crewe, Plymouth (twice), Bradford and Newport. Should they be favourites in this one? I’m not so sure.

Crawley have recorded 58% of shots this season in their matches, while Swindon have recorded 51%, but it’s the recent performances which really stand out – Crawley landing 57% compared to just 34% for Swindon. There is no doubt the Robins are in a tricky patch right now, and it’s got to be worth striking while the iron is hot – Crawley are 9/5 to win this one.

We’ve backed Cambridge in the last two game rounds and won’t be changing tact this week. They landed an excellent 4-0 win against Exeter, before letting us down with a 0-0 draw against Grimsby in mid-week. They enjoyed over 70% possession in that game and created plenty of decent chances, so we’ll just have to put that one down as the one-that-got-away.

Colin Calderwood’s side go to Northampton this weekend for what looks an eminently winnable game, so it’s surprising to see them marked up at 13/5 in this one.

We often find our best bets when taking a chance on the longer odds, and Macclesfield fit that bill at home to Bradford this weekend. The Bantams are definitely a side worthy of respect, but they are beatable on their travels – they have won just three of their eight away matches, while Macclesfield have won four of nine at home.

The Silkmen have improved as the season has gone on, and are now just seven points behind Bradford. 5/2 is on offer with Bet365 or SportingBet on the hosts here.

Finally, completely a foursome, Port Vale look decent odds at 21/20 to beat Oldham – a side who surely have a huge chance of being the side who slip out of the Football League this season. Vale are currently occupying a mid-table position, but their home form has been solid – four wins and three draws from seven in the league. It has been on the road where the troubles have come.

Oldham have won just four times all season, and just once away from home – in fact on the road they have lost five from eight, conceding 19 goals. Pretty much every performance metric you look at suggests they are lucky to be as high as 20th in the table, and Port Vale should be odds on here.

2pts Crawley to beat Swindon at 9/5 (General)

2pts Cambridge to beat Northamton at 13/5 (Betway)

1pt Macclesfield to beat Bradford at 5/2 (Bet365)

2pts Port Vale to beat Oldham at 21/20 (General)

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