Sky Bet Championship

I put up Birmingham for the drop at the start of the season, and after their opening day performance at Brentford I was sure I was on the right track (despite them winning!). But 15 matches in, and they have really picked up the pace, sitting comfortably in mid-table, while their home fans have only seen them lose once at St Andrews.

The shot data reads well – 57% of shots in their matches this season, and 52% on-target, while most recently that’s improved higher still to make them one of the best sides in the division at current levels.

Overall they have taken 198 shots to their opponents' 151, and that makes them value when they tackle pre-season favourites Fulham this weekend at odds north of 2/1.

Fulham have now won just once of their last five, although in fairness, you could also say they have lost just twice in 10. They are beatable though - that's the important fact – particularly away from home where their record reads 2-3-2, and losing 3-0 at home to Hull last time out suggests they really are struggling right now.

It’s not a bet I thought I’d be having at this point in the season, but Birmingham should be backed in this fixture in my eyes.

Another side enjoying a fine season are Preston – who went top temporarily on Sunday – the first time they had topped a division in 13 years! Their form has been built on home success – going 6-2-0 at Deepdale and scoring 22 goals. No side has a better goal difference (+12) and they should fancy their chances of another tilt at top-spot this weekend with a home match against Huddersfield.

The Terriers are definitely improving under Danny Cowley, but not fast enough to justify their price in this one. They are now seven unbeaten (4-3-0), so Cowley is definitely doing something right, but the shot-data suggests he’s probably enjoyed the early rub of the green and I’d favour Preston doing enough here. In that seven match run, they have kept four clean sheets, but they have also only scored 10 goals, and Preston should have enough fire power to come out ahead in this one.

Finally, Hull enjoyed that tremendous 3-0 victory over Fulham which underlined the improvement there as well. They have now won their last three, and their last 11 have yielded 5-4-2, including convincing wins over Fulham, Derby and Luton. They are now performing at levels above the divisional average on the major performance metrics so I’m more than happy to trust that form as a genuine reflection of their levels.

They face a very decent West Brom side who have gone top of the table this week, but there are reasons to doubt the Baggies will stay there and Hull could be an outside pick to prevail in this one. Their recent matches have seen a significant dip in performances.

They won 2-0 at Stoke on Monday, in a match where they only just edged the shot count. Ahead of that it was a draw with Charlton, but again the shot-count was disappointing there – 13-13 in the end. The same was true at home to Barnsley – a 2-2 draw, with a shot count of 11-11 in that one, while their 1-0 win against a very poor Middlesbrough saw them win 1-0 but only just edge the match.

On the basis of that recent run, I’m prepared to change Hull at 11/5 with Betfred and Sport Pesa. 21/10 is well available as well.

1pt Birmingham to beat Fulham at 11/5 (Betfred)

1pt Preston to beat Huddersfield at 5/6 (General)

2pts Hull to beat West Brom at 11/5 or 21/10 (General)

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