Albacete v Lugo (5pm)

Albacete v Lugo is an interesting encounter later on. 14 games into the season both sides are considerably outperforming where the shot-data would typically place them, although in very different ways.

Albacete rank overall 20th in our performance metrics, yet sit 7th in the division. That’s partly to do with their excellence in avoiding draws – just one on their 14 matches means they’ve either taken a full haul or got nothing. That’s all the more interesting when you consider there have been only 25 goals in their 14 games – an average of just 1.78 per match. They’ve won seven of their matches 1-0, while lot another 1-0 and drawn 0-0 twice. BTTS has landed just twice in their games this season.

Lugo rank rock bottom in our ratings, but are so far keeping their head above water in 15th place. Their away games have been similarly tight – 10 goals in six matches, (1.66 goals per game), but for them draws have actually been pretty costly with half of their games ending in an unproductive stalemate. They have already endured three 0-0’s, and a further three 1-1’s on the road, meaning they are without a win away from home all season.

This one looks like a tight encounter, and I really favour Albacete to come out on top, so I’m going to take a chance with a correct score angle on this one.

0.5pst Albacete to win 1-0 at 19/4 (Bet Victor)

0.5pts Albacete to win 2-0 at 13/2 (General)

2pts Under 1.5 Goals at 17/10 (Marathon)

#Football