Goztepe v Malatyaspor (11am)

Over to Turkey for this one, where the away side look terrific value.

Malatyaspor are currently nicely poised in 5th, and boast a +12 goal difference overall - the best in the division. Recent results have been excellent - beating Denizlispor 5-1, Kayerispor 4-0 and Konyaspor 2-0, and taking a draw with Kasimpasa. Their underlaying metrics have seen them posting 57% of shots in their matches as well and everything suggests they are a very decent side indeed.

They travel to Goztepe, who have won just three times in their opening 10 league matches - and are posting some pretty poor numbers all round. A minus two goal difference looks about right - they have a 47% shot ratio (dropping to 44% more recently) and there is no logical reason for them to be as short as 11/10 in this one.

That means we can get Malatyaspor at 5/2, or take them on the Asian Handicap (+0.25) at even money. I'm going to split the stakes on this one rather than try to land the jackpot. The Asian +0.25 (0, +0.5) will see you collect fully if Malatyaspor win the match, win half your bet and get half your stake added if it's a draw and lose your full stake if the home side prevail.

1pt Malatyaspor to beat Goztepe at 5/2 (UniBet)

1pt Malatyaspor +0.25 at evens (General)

#Football